As I predicted, Palenque and Parana have fallen. But what I didn't predict was the Buccs taking back Maracaibo and Chicken Pizza, as well as Leogane and Georgetown remaining in their hands. They do have a lot of boats here, even if many of them are carriers. Brazil lacks ranged units and ships of their own, so the Buccaneers have an advantage.
But even then they can only prolong the inevitable.